Potential paths and historical road network between Italy and Egypt: from predictive to postdictive approach
Résumé
In this paper we aim to present the preliminary result of two cases studies focused on the predictive and postdictive approach to historical routes. We developed and tested the procedure in two different geographical areas: northern Lazio and the valley of the Kings in Egypt. Our work is based on three steps. The irst one is predictive. We evaluated the movement in a given geographical context and period. In this phase we produced several potential paths between two known settlements, by changing the weight of the environmental and cultural factors. In the second step we veriied the prediction directly on the ield. The last step is postdictive. We change the question and we ask why did they use exactly those paths. We modelled several cumulative cost surfaces to produce a simulation that overlaps as much as possible the historical paths. Thus, we can understand and evaluate which were the key factors that constrained the route network.
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